Lol! Canvasback, that online magazine is written by a couple of average fly guys that likely spend a few days a year visiting that river. They're online magazine is a joke IMO and several streams could really do without the spot burning present on that site. I find it funny that you will never see any specifics on their favorite Saugeen tributary (the Beatty) but they will proudly serve up access points and hints on other anglers favourite tribs.....Can you tell I'm not a fan of that site! Lol!
Now, I'm not a biologist myself but have spent the past 20 or so years educating myself on and chasing Steelhead. ALOT of that time, many hundreds of days in fact, have been spent on my home river, The Bayfield. I am more than a little familiar with it.......
Yes, the Steelhead returns have been healthy province wide due to couple VERY healthy year classes. In fact, the fantastic 2009 class made up the majority of last years retuning fish in the Bayfield. Unfortunatley the past 2 summers, having had below normal precipatation and above normal temps means juvenille survival was likely VERY low. The 2010 year class seemed almost non existent last fall on the lower Lake Huron tribs and this past summer, being the hottest and driest in recent history will no doubt lead to another year of dismal survival rates.
The Bayfield river in particular, having minimal sutiable spawning and nursery waters in even the best of years will no doubt see a HUGE population decrease over the next few years as the remaining numbers of steelhead adults are harvested and succumb to natural mortality. Despite what some may think, small rivers such as the Bayfield only recieve runs of a Steelhead totalling a few thousand at most during an average year. Given that a maximum harvest rate of about 15% (thats 375-450 steelhead in years with 2500-3000 returning fish) per annum is generally accepted as the max to maintain a population and repeat spawning being another particularly important factor each each and every Adult becomes that much more important following succesive years of low reproductive success.
Basically, if the derby falls on a weekend with prime conditions 1/2 or more of the maximum sustainable harvest number could concievalby be taken from the river in just a weekend! That scares the SH!T out of me! With the drastic increase in traffic I've noted over the past couple years the run #'s will likely drop very quickly and to very low levels over the next few years, particulary if the next summer or two are anything like the one we've had this year.
Please note that not all of those 60000 fingerlings go into the Bayfield. I would be very cautious in assuming success of these stockers considering the current stocking sites. Without a clipping study it's all speculation really but I am under the assumption a large majority of the returing fish in the Bayfield are wild born at the moment.
Josh