Which wind forecast should I believe?

The weather link at the top of this page has some great stuff attached but there is a big difference in the wind forecast on two sites:

The one listed as Erie Windcast by intellicast.com has a map which I read to say has a forecast of a southwest 5 knot wind for six o’clock today.

The Environment Canada forecast for Lake Erie East End says "Wind south 15 knots veering to southwest 15 this afternoon then diminishing to west 10 early Thursday morning."

There is a big difference between 5 knots and 15 knots, especially for small boat owners like me. The leaves outside my house (30 miles from the lake) are waving pretty good right now so I’m inclined to believe the environment canada forecast.

This is a cool site with a map of Lake Erie and a 30 hour forecast of wind speeds and directions. It is very close to Environment Canada marine forecasts.
Wind speeds are colour coded so one can easily see when and where the changes are coming from. Easy to red and, in my opinion, reasonably accurate.
I've found this site to be very accurate in terms of wind speed, direction, and timing:

i use this gov site.

then i get home from fishing and look at 'last 24 hours' and see how accurate it was, and educate myself on what is fishable and what is not. for example, i was on the bay yesterday for 5 hours, the wind conditons were over 10KN and uncomfortable in the morning, died down to 3 KN in the afternoon and was very calm...its actual data and accurate.

which they should be, as they are not forecasts, but readings!
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